Observations and inanities by a second-shift assistant supervisor in the Puppy-Grinding division of the Evil Atheist Conspiracy® (our motto: "Sure it's cruel, but think of the jobs!"), your host, Brent Rasmussen.
We'll know soon.
Via 538:
Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)
Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.
If you're not too much of an election geek, you may not know 538, because they're pretty hardcore. Basically, they use all the available polling information, and run simulations to see what the distribution of different results depending on voting models is. When they say that Obama has a 96.3% win rate, that means that of their simulations, Obama wins 9,630 of 10,000 (they run 10,000 simulations each time).
We'll know soon enough, but what's your prognostication? I'm thinking that we're going to see something very rare in American politics - a true landslide. I'll say Obama will get close to 400 electoral votes, when all is said and done, and have something in the vicinity of 55% of the popular vote.
What's your prediction?
Jim Downey
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Election Day
As I said in a morning email to a friend in New Zealand:
"We'll have a new president-elect by this time tomorrow! YEEEEEE-fuckin'-HAAAW!!"
And a side note to little richie g down there, who is "bothered" by Barry Obama: Yeah, you were all over the Bush administration with your deep concerns, too, huh?
And, uh, seriously? You're worried because the motto "Change We Can Believe In" doesn't give details?
But yeah, I was the same way when all those Coke advertisements said "It's the Real Thing." And I thought Nike's "Just Do It" was even a little sinister.
Oh, man, I'll be so happy to get some corroboration — by tonight, I hope — that people like you don't speak for most Americans.
By the way, last thing I read was that al Qaida backs McCain. They even made a statement. I wasn't aware that Islamic Jihad had expressed a preference.
And just FYI, if I'm reading you right, it seems a little off-base to refer to black U.S. citizens as "the African community." And even if some of them are voting for Obama on the basis of race, what's wrong with that? It's not like white people haven't been doing it. Truth be told, among the, oh, ten thousand or so reasons this little white boy is voting for Obama is because he's "black." To heck with it, it's about time.
I laughed out loud last night when I came across this quote from comedian Chris Rock: "Bush has fucked things up so bad folks are scared to vote for a white man for president."
OK, so just what kind of change do you want?
There are a whole universe of changes that can be made. Some good, some bad, some worse. How do you know which course he is proposing? I think many people are looking at this in a binary way - there is only "the same way" and "something different". There is a whole universe of options that are simply "Change" I want to know which "Change" is being proposed.
F'rinstance, look at just WHO supported the Keller Decision - With OHB in the White House, you can be guaranteed there will not be any more judges like that. And the infringements on our individual freedoms will occur at an even faster rate than what is happening today.
Is THAT the kind of change you want?
"I believe in preaching to the converted; for I have generally found that the converted do not understand their own religion." -G.K. Chesterton
Here we go again ...
That part down the page where you lament
... that would be because it's no use talking to you, because you never listen, never change, never learn, and some of us have figured this out. Far better to have some fun bouncing a ball off the brick wall than attempting to reason with it.
I know you'll never be able to get out of your head and see yourself objectively, but oh, boy, is that a corker! Yeah, once Barry Obama takes over, we'll long for the days of the Freedom Loving Bush White House.
As to the Change We Can Believe In, you'll just have to wait to see what it means, like all the rest of us. But I can tell you, after 8 years of Bush, I'm READY for whatever happens. It can't be any worse. It could be amazingly better.
I have a side bet with myself about all how all the nice Republicans and conservatives — you, maybe? — will react to a fair-and-square presidential win by a Democrat, especially considering the U.S. economic meltdown, the two wars, the environmental problems, and so many other extremely serious problems America faces, and which we can only solve by working together.
I expect they will fight tooth-and-nail, they will scream, they will practice divisiveness, they will focus on non-essentials, they will spit out hate and witch hunts and lies like a giant Pez dispenser, and they will never stop no matter how much damage it does to the country. Because they really don't give a shit about the nation, or its people, or its values, or its freedoms. Far as they're concerned, those are only convenient handles on the brains of the suckers.
...
And damn, you've done it again. Even knowing it's a waste of time, here I am giving you some of my precious lifetime.
You're good at this troll business, mister. Darned good.
Who you gonna pay?
OK, are you seeing this behavior? I'm not. Nothing even remotely like to 2000 or 2004.
Neither one of us can. But at least I can consider the question "What if I'm wrong?" and make a choice. You don't seem to have that freedom.
I'll go back to my place under the bridge...
"It is not bigotry to be certain we are right; but it is bigotry to be unable to imagine how we might possibly have gone wrong." -G.K. Chesterton
As landslides go...
It's nice that Obama has a solid lead, and in terms of the electoral college, will likely have what could be seen as a landslide. With the polls showing popular opinion split 51.5 percent vs. 46.4, (fivethirtyeight.com) I wish it were more of a landslide than it is, and it puzzles me that so many people seem to still prefer McCain and Palin. From the popular vote, it seems really, hardly a landslide.
Consider prior elections:
http://www.100bestwebsites.org/alt/evmaps/electoral-maps.htm
George H.W. Bush won with 53 vs. 45, which is a bigger margin than what Obama has.
Reagan won 58-40 against Mondale.
Nixon won 60-37 vs. McGovern, taking all but one state.
Johnson beat Goldwater 61-38.
So, given all that, and as far ahead of McCain as Obama is, it's not such a huge landslide as I would hope for, or as big as still fairly recent past landslides have been.
It's really very simple....
Haven't you been listening? All [white] Republicans and Clinton Democrats are bigoted racists, while enlightened intelligentsia and Africans are incapable of such racism (even though the African community supports BHO over 90% solely on the basis of his race).
I just got back from Mocambique, and was told by one of the locals that all over Africa, BHO is widely supported because of his ancestry, while his ideas are being totally ignored.
I am bothered by his ideas ("Electricity prices must spike"), his associations (including the Kenyan dictator he helped get elected), his "Change We Can Believe In" motto that does not define in which way he will change things (are we turning left, right, up, down or going some other direction? - all are "change"), and lastly his supporters (there must be a reason that al-Quaida and Islamic Jihad support him)
Nah - I will simply be dismissed as an uninformed, narrow-minded 'racist'.
"I believe in preaching to the converted; for I have generally found that the converted do not understand their own religion." -G.K. Chesterton
I could honestly care less . . .
...what motivates people in Africa or elsewhere to support any political candidate here. This is our responsibility, not theirs. And that extends to Al Qaeda, which actually support John McCain. And just because you or anyone else supports McCain does not make you a racist - though I can understand why racists would vote against Obama.
You sound defensive here, Rich. Just a reaction to the tsunami which is coming?
Jim Downey
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Like Science Fiction? Read *or listen to* my novel, Communion of Dreams, for free.
Yes, it is a reaction
Yes, I am a bit defensive. I've experienced the personal rejection by Democrats. Not a rejection of my biases or ideas. Almost every Dem purist I have interacted with will not debate the ideas, they invalidate me personally for having any contrary ideas.
Generally, my Rep friends will try to change my mind, while my Dem friends make it personal.
----BTW----
The al-Quaeda "support" is not FOR McCain, but exactly the opposite:
I wouldn't call that a ringing endorsement.
"I believe in preaching to the converted; for I have generally found that the converted do not understand their own religion." -G.K. Chesterton
Hmm.
Hmm. Check out this. Be sure to read the comments.
Jim Downey
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Like Science Fiction? Read *or listen to* my novel, Communion of Dreams, for free.
That's real mild
I scanned the article, and started reading the comments. My initial reaction is "That's nuthin" compared to what I got from the posters at thinkprogress.org.
"I believe in preaching to the converted; for I have generally found that the converted do not understand their own religion." -G.K. Chesterton
I see.
So, you have made your decision about which candidate to support on the basis of how your comments were received by those on a partisan site?
On that basis, continued extremism is the only possible path, given the behaviour of those on the periphery of each side - pushing us all to the the farthest reaches of our respective parties, in reaction to the insults of the opposing side.
Jim Downey
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Like Science Fiction? Read *or listen to* my novel, Communion of Dreams, for free.
Sorry - you got it backwards...
No, I made up my mind based on my values first.
When I ran for County Commissioner here was when I started getting the grief for being openly conservative. No, it was before that, when I worked for the City of Portland that I started to experience it. They only had room for quiet, obedient little conservatives who never questioned the mainline political thinking of the place.
I'll admit my support for MR. McC is tepid. I'd rather vote FOR someone than AGAINST someone else. But I'll take the "lesser of two evils" argument as a last resort.
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive." -C..S.Lewis