Peak Oil

Just curious - how are gas prices in your neck of the woods?

It's $3.599 here in central Missouri, and has jumped about $.40 in the last month.

Jim Downey

So, in this discussion over on dKos this morning, I made the following comment pertaining to the question of whether or not we face the prospect of some kind of civil disintegration in the US, specifically regarding some kind of violence generated by the far Right:

(My paranoia level is rising...) Because this country is a tinderbox, and once some idiot strikes a match, the whole thing could go up in flames around us.

I'm not saying that we have to give in just because some idiots threaten violence. I am saying that we must work in ways that avoid violence. Because as anyone who understands violence will tell you, even if it is justified, once it happens it will change you forever.

To be honest, I'll be astounded if we make it through the next decade without something disasterous happening in this regard. I hope I'm wrong, and will work to do what I can to avoid it - but I fear I'm right.

There's a classic science fiction story by Tom Godwin, "The Cold Equations," first published in the August 1954 issue of Astounding Science Fiction.

It's been decades since I read it, so my memory is probably not all that reliable. But as I recall, it involves a young woman who stows away on a rocket in order to visit her brother on a colony world.

The problem was, stowing away on the supply ship, adding her extra weight, when every gram of fuel and cargo was carefully calculated, meant that the rocket would crash and both her and the pilot would die, and the supplies for the colony would not get there, and the colonists might die too.

The physics of the situation was absolutely merciless. No happy thoughts, no heroic scenarios, no hopeful just-in-time rescues. Just math and physics and not enough fuel. The girl was jettisoned — and died — in cold airless space.

It was a shocking story at the time, and probably still is, because it goes against the grain of so much of our fictional mind-food. We want to believe in heroes, and never-too-lates, and no-situation-too-hopeless.

The story slapped us in the face with the physical reality that these happy beliefs are sometimes, and sometimes often, not true. That you can't really count on a last-minute rescue. The happy endings, even when they're true, are told only by the people who survived the siege, got away from the rapist, escaped the approaching army. The ones whose parachutes finally did open. The ones who survived until Balto and the diphtheria serum got to Nome. All the others died without telling their side of the tale.

Although Americans are most familiar with the abuses associated with Middle Eastern oil, which promotes terrorism and stabilizes brutal dictatorships, the greatest abuses are elsewhere. In Nigeria, a militant group claiming to fight foreign control of oil kidnapped nine oil workers, destroyed an oil pipeline, and promised to fire missiles at oil tankers (link #1).

[Link #2] The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has given oil companies and their employees until midnight on Friday night to leave the region.

It recently blew up two oil pipelines, held four foreign oil workers hostage and sabotaged two major oilfields.

The group wants greater control of the oil wealth produced on their land.

The warning came as militants and the army exchanged fire after a government helicopter gunship attacked barges allegedly used by smugglers to transport stolen crude oil.

Correspondents say the militants provide security for the smugglers.

Nigeria is Africa's leading oil exporter and the fifth-biggest source of US oil imports, but despite its oil wealth, many Nigerians live in abject poverty.

I'll be posting updates here throughout the day. Related Blogs which are tracking events are The Oil Drum and Jeff Masters at The Weather Underground. See also the National Weather Center.

AT 5 AM EDT, HURRICANE RITA IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 STORM. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 STORM SURGE FREEPORT TO TEXAS/LA STATE LINE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. Recon and Satellite imagery continues to show Hurricane Rita intensifying rapidly -- and could reach Cat 4 within a few hours. [NOAA 5 AM EDT storm track]

The following collaborative effort by DarkSyde and Hurricane Meteorologist Steve Gregory is devoted mostly to energy/storm issues. It won't turn you into an offshore energy/economics expert; but you'll be able to play one on the Internet and in the office.